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'The Last Laugh': EU Sanctions on Russia Backfiring as Moscow Winning 'Energy War,' Analysts Say_我的网站

一 |     Western sanctions that followed the launching of Russia’s special operation in Ukraine in February were nakedly aimed at reducing Russia energy exports to zero and making the Russian economy “scream,” as they had similarly attempted with Venezuela and Iran. However, with Moscow securing new markets and prices rebounding, it’s Europeans who are on the losing end of things, experts told Sputnik on Thursday.,According to Bloomberg, prices across Europe are expected to increase sharply later this year, when European sanctions against Russian crude oil exports take effect, with some places predicting a doubling in prices. All this while Russia’s crude oil production and income continue to recover to pre-February levels, thanks to expanded exports to Asian buyers and a healthy relationship with OPEC+.,Western European governments had better hope the winter is warm, because if people start freezing due to fuel shortages, they will demand an end to their government’s policies blocking the gas.,Dr. Mamdouh G. Salameh, a visiting professor of energy economics at the ESCP Business School in London, told Sputnik that “energy is far more formidable weapon in the hand of President Putin than hydrogen bombs.”,“The world, particularly the European Union (EU), is very dependent on Russian oil and gas supplies. That is why Western sanctions have so far largely refrained from sanctioning Russian oil and gas exports to the EU and that is why Russia is winning the energy war,” the economist asserted.,“Western sanctions against Russia have on the whole failed miserably,” he said. “The sanctions are hurting the economies of those imposing them rather than the Russian economy.”,He noted that in the US and EU alike, high gas prices are having widespread effects across their economies, helping to push the EU into a recession.,“There will very soon come the time when European citizens will ask their governments to stop spending billions of dollars supplying Ukraine with weapons rather than use these billions to help them reduce their energy bills,” he predicted. “The day is coming when the EU will reverse course on Ukraine and lift the sanctions against Russia in return for plentiful Russian cheap gas and oil supplies. If it is to be able to do that, the EU has to free itself from the United States’ pressure and stand up to the US.”,“The more sanctions Western countries impose on Russia, the higher the prices of oil and gas surge and the more revenues Russia gets from its energy exports,” Salameh said, adding that “Western analysts and some experts are daydreaming and also deluding themselves if they think that the Russian energy sector is failing. They are trying to talk down Russia’s energy sector but they are doomed to fail miserably.”,“The real irony is that Russia’s economy will emerge in a better shape than most Western economies in the aftermath of the Ukraine conflict. Putin is going to have the last laugh.”,Vladimir Demidov, an international expert on the resources and energy markets, told Sputnik that regardless of the path of European policy, at this point, Russian energy is not coming back. European nations will adapt, but the higher energy costs will stay and will cause Europe’s global standing to decline.,“I don't think there's going to be a global crisis, given that [there is] a fairly rapid filling of underground storage facilities,” he said. “I think that talking about freezing is a fiction, of course, provided that -40 [Celsius] does not hold in Europe. And then, I think, it will be more difficult.”,“Next year, I don't think they will freeze at all,” he predicted. “Enough gas for them and mine, I think they will unpack their coal mines, cuts, quarries. There they will start producing gas at home, by fracturing the reservoir, in general, they will kill nature, but they will have enough gas.”,“And in the future, Gazprom will only supply less. I think its share will fall to 50 billion [cubic meters per day] in the next two or three years, at most. The problem is that everything that is mined by them [Europe] is very expensive. The role of Europe as an economically independent unit of the world economy will simply disappear. Europe will cease to be independent,” Demidov said.,Still, Demidov predicted that Europe’s sanctions policies would continue, even as they set in motion the gradual decline of the continent.,“In Europe, four premiers are gone, including in Great Britain. I do not think that it [governments dissolving] will continue; if the winter is really warm enough, then other premiers will not fly. And everyone is fine, they will say that ‘you see, we did it! These hordes have not conquered us!’ After that, the fall of the European economy will start. The sanctions they have introduced have not been thought through, they will cause themselves more damage than Russia in the next 3-5 years.”。    　　三星电子股价大跳水。
　　今日早间，韩国股市开盘后，三星电子股价大幅跳水，一度大跌超7%。在此之前，三星电子宣布计划在第三季度派发约30万亿韩元现金股息，预计2026年股东回报资金将达到约90万亿至110万亿韩元。　　高盛在最新发布的报告中指出，AI（人工智能）交易的“躺赢”时代或许已经结束，开始进入了一个更加依赖基本面、盈利预期和估值错配的阶段。高盛还表示，存储板块和数据中心板块的估值缺口最为突出，是目前最具吸引力的战术性机会。

二 | 　　三星电子跳水　　北京时间8月24日早间，韩国股市开盘后，三星电子股价直线跳水，盘初一度大跌超7%，截至北京时间8:30，跌幅达6.84%。

三 | 受此拖累，韩国KOSPI指数跌1.89%。SK海力士则小幅走高，现涨0.35%。

四 | 　　消息面上，三星电子此前公布了史上规模最大的股东回报计划，预计2026年向股东返还最多110万亿韩元（约合人民币5300亿元），相当于自由现金流的五成左右。　　据三星电子向监管机构提交的文件，公司将派发约30万亿韩元第三季度现金股息，并回购约15万亿韩元股票用于员工薪酬计划。　　Petra Capital Management管理合伙人兼首席投资官Albert Yong表示：“市场真正关注的问题在于增量规模有多大，以及回购与股息各占多少比例。”　　目前，三星电子尚未公布回报计划的具体结构细节，股息与回购的比例仍有待明确。

五 | 具体细节或将在10月下旬的董事会上最终确定。　　此次三星电子公布的股东回报规模若最终落于110万亿韩元上限，将刷新韩国企业股东回报的历史纪录，进一步检验韩国上市公司能否在AI周期带来的超额利润中，持续扩大对投资者的现金分配比例。　　KB证券此前预计，未来3年三星电子的股东回报总规模至少将达到600万亿至700万亿韩元，按现金分红计算的股息率将达到7%至15%。　　在三星电子公布股东回报计划前，SK海力士也宣布了40万亿韩元回购计划，并将2025年至2027年间产生的超过50%自由现金流用于提升股东回报。　　市场预计，三星电子和SK海力士到2026年年底将持有总计2630亿美元的净现金储备。据LSEG数据和路透测算，这一数字是英伟达预估净现金（1020 亿美元）的两倍有余，同时也超过美股 “科技七巨头” 其余六家科技企业的现金总和。

六 | 　　高盛最新研判　　高盛在最新发布的报告中指出，目前AI交易的叙事逻辑正经历快速切换：随着算力成本持续下行，市场的关注焦点已从“谁是大规模资本开支的赢家”转向“谁是AI大规模普及浪潮中的真正受益者”。　　高盛表示，当前的仓位出清叠加依然强劲的AI基本面，为9月份市场重新承担风险奠定了更为健康的基础。

七 | 　　高盛认为，AI交易远未终结，但AI交易已经从过去的“普涨行情”，进入了一个更加依赖基本面、盈利预期和估值错配的阶段。

八 | 　　在战术层面，高盛建议围绕“股价与每股盈利大幅背离”的机会进行交易，并指出存储板块和数据中心板块的估值缺口最为突出，是目前最具吸引力的战术性机会。　　从高盛编制的加权平均净利润预期与加权平均市值对比来看，上述两个板块的盈利修复尚未充分反映在股价之中。　　高盛表示，英伟达二季度财报是下一个关键催化剂，此后密集的9月行业会议季也将为市场提供重要支撑。

九 | 　　据彭博报道，英伟达部分大型客户已经被告知，搭载英伟达AI芯片的服务器系统明年初开始可能涨价超过15%，主要原因就是内存芯片成本快速上涨。这再次证明存储产业链的议价权。　　与此同时，AI应用层正逐步获得市场关注。Moderna与默沙东此前宣布合作开发AI辅助药物，引发市场对医疗健康AI赛道的广泛兴趣。　　高盛数据显示，医疗AI受益标的的盈利修正广度正在提升，专业投资者情绪的改善也开始带动泛型投资者入场布局AI药物研发相关机会。　　东财图解·加点干货（文章来源：券商中国）。

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Published on:08:27:07