我们的少年时代

在日本政府部门和机构的2027财年预算申请中，防卫预算申请达到约8.9万亿日元；养老金、医疗等社会保障支出预计增加约3900亿日元，而根据日本内阁府今年7月发布的2026财年经济财政白皮书，由于中东局势带来输入性通胀压力，同时劳动力短缺等结构性问题持续存在，日本经济复苏仍面临多重挑战，潜在经济增长率仍处于较低水平。    New York City officials are limiting the time asylum-seekers with children can spend in the city's shelter system.Starting next week, city officials will begin notifying some families that they have 60 days to find alternative housing. Last month, NYC Mayor Eric Adams' administration announced it would be handing out 30-day notices for adult migrants without children.The move to restrict the amount of time in the shelter system comes as the city continues to grapple with a large number of asylum-seekers coming to the city since spring of last year. Over 126,000 asylum-seekers have moved through the shelter system so far since Spring 2022."For over a year, New York City has led the response to this national crisis, but significant additional resources, coordination, and support are needed from all levels of government. With over 64,100 asylum seekers still in the city's care, and thousands more migrants arriving every week, expanding this policy to all asylum-seekers in our care is the only way to help migrants take the next steps on their journeys," Mayor Adams said in a statement Monday.The mayor's office said it would pair the notices with "intensified case work" to help asylum-seekers figure out their next steps. A spokesperson for the mayor's office told ABC News that if someone fails to secure housing by the deadline, they'll need to return to the city's intake center and seek a new placement.Some advocates believe issuing the notices is a way for the Adams administration to limit its obligation's under the city's "right-to-shelter" laws which require the city to provide shelter for anyone in need. The city has asked a court to consider allowing the city to consider allowing it relinquish some of those obligations if it doesn't have "the resources and capacity to establish and maintain sufficient shelter sites, staffing, and security to provide safe and appropriate shelter," according to court filings.On Monday, the administration announced it will open a temporary shelter at Floyd Bennett Field in the coming weeks that will be serve approximately 500 families in a "semi-congregate setting" with privacy dividers and locks."It's outrageous the way the Adams administration continues to go out of its way to gut New York City's right-to-shelter protections. This policy ensures that all New Yorkers, no matter when they arrived here, can maintain a roof over their heads while they stabilize their lives and get on the road to self-sufficiency," Murad Awawdeh, the executive director of the New York Immigration Coalition, said in part in a statement.He added, "Now, Mayor Adams is putting children in danger by forcing some asylum seeking families to stay in congregate settings as well as mandating families re-apply for shelter after 60 days, a move that creates unnecessary bureaucratic hurdles for people who are already struggling."The spokesperson for the mayor's office told ABC News they hoped the city could continue housing migrants without forcing families with children on to the streets and reiterated the administration's call for more support from the state and federal governments.。那么，日本政府要想扩大军费、增加民生支出，该如何获取资金？是否能持续进行，将有哪些风险？

中国社科院日本研究所助理研究员 孟明铭：日本政府目前收支上的矛盾，短期内仍有拼凑的办法。总的来说，高市政府的态度就是不靠多借钱，而是靠砍优惠、砍补贴、挖闲钱、重新算账等这些办法来解决。希望通过宽松的政策，加大国内投资和发展军工业的手段，把日本的潜在增长率抬上去，形成所谓先花钱，后靠经济增长把饼做大的剧本。

二 | 中国社科院日本研究所助理研究员 孟明铭：日本政府这一套操作的本质有饮鸩止渴色彩，长期看风险很大。第一，目前高市采取的替代性裁员设想都有画饼嫌疑。

三 | 据测算，相关措施只能提供一两万亿日元左右的空间，和高达10万亿的支出相比是杯水车薪。而且日本目前的经济发展前景并不明朗，高市能不能依靠经济增长来增加收入，也要画上一个问号。中国社科院日本研究所助理研究员 孟明铭：第二，可能进一步加剧日本的金融风险。日本目前债务余额占GDP的比重已经非常高，进一步减税和增加支出将严重影响日本政府还债能力，加剧日元的贬值压力。日元持续走弱会有推高物价、通胀等负面影响，加重日本经济出现系统性金融风险。中国社科院日本研究所助理研究员 孟明铭：第三，涉及日本民生的裁员压力。消费税是日本的年金、医疗和介护等重要的稳定财源，缺口如不能妥善填补，可能影响相关服务的可持续性。

四 | 食品消费税减税两年期满，自民党为了保住政权，很可能不敢再提增税，两年可能就会变成永久减收。

五 | 由此社会保障最稳定的一块税基就被挖空了，进一步恶化日本民众的生活环境。中国社科院日本研究所助理研究员 孟明铭：高市政府现在最在意的不是长期风险，而是接下来2027年9月前后的自民党总裁选和2028年夏季的参院选。近期多份民调显示，高市内阁的支持率明显下滑，所以她迫切需要通过减税来拉回中间选民，通过扩军支出取悦国内的右翼保守势力这一基本盘，稳住支持率，渡过总裁选和参议院选，把首相的板凳坐稳，把风险留给日本的未来。

六 | 倘若风险快要爆雷，那么顺滑下台走人也不失是一个办法。这进一步暴露以高市为首的日本右翼势力执迷于整军扩武、推动新军国主义，为满足政治私利，不惜损害日本民生和未来的真实面目。

七 |